The impact of climate change on dam overtopping floods in Australia

Abstract

There is unequivocal evidence that climate change will change the risk profile of dams, which are critical pieces of infrastructure that safeguard water supply and provide flood mitigation for populated areas. A key input to assessing risks to dam safety is a probabilistic estimate of extreme flood magnitudes with the potential to overtop dams. However, few studies have attempted to consider climate change in such estimates due to the challenges involved. A recent examination of contemporary scientific findings pertinent to climate change impacts on the probability of dam overtopping floods has informed the projection of estimates made here. We project changes in the exceedance probabilities..